In reality, the failure of health care reform would greatly embolden Congressional Republicans and dramatically weaken any school reform efforts led by the President and Democrats in Congress. Either way, NCLB reauthorization is likely to take place in a very different environment and process than did ARRA and RttT. It's not just gonna be Duncan and Miller in a room with their wish list.
Yeah... I don't see the NCLB II being decided by a handful of blue dogs. Or... I'm not sure what the blue dog's role will be, but it will be different than in health care. Teachers unions != big pharma.